from __future__ import annotations import argparse import itertools import json from dataclasses import replace from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd from qfr.strategy.etf_trend import Constraints, TrendParams, UniverseAsset, run_backtest def load_universe(config_path: Path) -> tuple[list[UniverseAsset], Constraints, str, str]: conf = json.loads(config_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) universe = [UniverseAsset(**a) for a in conf["assets"]] cons = conf.get("constraints", {}) constraints = Constraints( max_positions=int(cons.get("max_positions", 4)), must_commodity=int(cons.get("must_include", {}).get("commodity", 0)), must_rates=int(cons.get("must_include", {}).get("rates", 0)), must_equity=int(cons.get("must_include", {}).get("equity", 0)), ) risk_proxy = cons.get("risk_proxy", "510300.SH") rates_fallback = cons.get("rates_fallback", "511010.SH") return universe, constraints, risk_proxy, rates_fallback def load_prices(raw_dir: Path, universe: list[UniverseAsset], start: str, end: str) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: out: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {} for a in universe: fn = raw_dir / f"{a.ts_code.replace('.', '')}.parquet" df = pd.read_parquet(fn) df = df.copy() df["trade_date"] = df["trade_date"].astype(str) df = df[(df["trade_date"] >= start) & (df["trade_date"] <= end)] out[a.ts_code] = df return out def perf_stats(equity: pd.Series) -> dict[str, float]: r = equity.pct_change().dropna() if r.empty: return {} ann_ret = float((equity.iloc[-1] / equity.iloc[0]) ** (252 / len(r)) - 1) ann_vol = float(r.std(ddof=1) * (252 ** 0.5)) dd = float((equity / equity.cummax() - 1.0).min()) calmar = float(ann_ret / abs(dd)) if dd < 0 else float("nan") return {"ann_return": ann_ret, "ann_vol": ann_vol, "max_drawdown": dd, "calmar": calmar} def main() -> None: p = argparse.ArgumentParser() p.add_argument("--config", default="configs/etf_universe.json") p.add_argument("--rawdir", default="data/raw") p.add_argument("--start", default="20200101") p.add_argument("--end", default="20251231") p.add_argument("--out", default="data/tune_results.parquet") args = p.parse_args() config_path = Path(args.config) raw_dir = Path(args.rawdir) universe, constraints, risk_proxy, rates_fallback = load_universe(config_path) prices = load_prices(raw_dir, universe, args.start, args.end) base = TrendParams() # small grid to keep runtime reasonable fast_list = [5, 10] slow_list = [20, 40] atr_mult_list = [2.5, 3.0] vol_window_list = [10, 20] port_vol_window_list = [40, 60] max_positions_list = [3, 4] rows = [] for sma_fast, sma_slow, atr_mult, vol_window, port_vol_window, max_positions in itertools.product( fast_list, slow_list, atr_mult_list, vol_window_list, port_vol_window_list, max_positions_list, ): if sma_fast >= sma_slow: continue params = replace( base, sma_fast=sma_fast, sma_slow=sma_slow, atr_mult=atr_mult, vol_window=vol_window, port_vol_window=port_vol_window, max_positions=max_positions, rebalance_every=1, ) cons = replace(constraints, max_positions=max_positions) equity, _weights = run_backtest( prices, universe, cons, params, rates_fallback=rates_fallback, risk_proxy=risk_proxy, ) st = perf_stats(equity["equity"]) if not st: continue row = { "sma_fast": sma_fast, "sma_slow": sma_slow, "atr_mult": atr_mult, "vol_window": vol_window, "port_vol_window": port_vol_window, "max_positions": max_positions, **st, } rows.append(row) df = pd.DataFrame(rows) if df.empty: print("no results") return # filter by vol constraint first, then sort by ann_return filt = df[df["ann_vol"] <= 0.18].copy() if filt.empty: filt = df.copy() filt = filt.sort_values(["ann_return", "calmar"], ascending=False) out = Path(args.out) out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) filt.to_parquet(out, index=False) print("top10") cols = [ "ann_return", "ann_vol", "max_drawdown", "calmar", "sma_fast", "sma_slow", "atr_mult", "vol_window", "port_vol_window", "max_positions", ] print(filt[cols].head(10).to_string(index=False)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()